Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models     

钟水新  庄妍  胡胜  陈子通  丁伟钰  冯业荣  邓涛  刘显通  张艳霞  徐道生  戴光丰  蒙伟光 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):406-417

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.  相似文献   

1980－2018年山西省太行山南麓暴雨时空变化特征          下载免费PDF全文

刘强军  宋军芳  马龙. 《气象与环境科学》2022,45(1):30-38

基于1980-2018年山西省太行山南麓晋城市5个站点的降水资料,利用小波分析和Mann-Kendall方法,研究了太行山南麓暴雨时空变化特征。结果表明:39年平均年暴雨日数有0.9个,年际变化幅度较小。暴雨量与暴雨日数的空间分布并不一致,1980、1981、1982、1995和1996年暴雨日数较多。分析50-59、60-69、70-79、80-89、90-99、100以上6个暴雨量区间空间分布发现,暴雨的空间分布在不同区间并没有明显的趋同性。年暴雨降水量有不同程度的增加趋势,晋城市下辖5站暴雨量趋势均存在突变,突变时间存在差异,暴雨量在19811983年和19921995年为两个峰值时段,之后有所缓和。39年暴雨时间序列的小波波谱显示,太行山南麓暴雨呈现0~3 a、3~7 a、8~24 a等3类周期准振荡变化规律,各波动周期稳定性和显著性不同。3~7 a出现5个多少准周期振荡,该周期表现较为显著,8~24 a出现2个准振荡周期,且这两个周期非常稳定,具有全域性的特征。晋城市3~7 a的暴雨振荡周期和8~24 a特大暴雨振荡周期与现实非常吻合。  相似文献   

深圳S波段与X波段双偏振雷达在定量降水估计中的应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张哲  戚友存  朱自伟  李东欢  曾庆锋  兰红平 《气象学报》2021,79(5):786-803

双偏振多普勒天气雷达的一个重要应用是进行定量降水估计（QPE）,它可以获得反射率（Z_H）、差分反射率（Z_DR）和差传播相移率（K_dp）这些与降水粒子有关的信息,常用的双偏振雷达降水估计方法有基于Z_H的R（Z_H）、基于Z_H和Z_DR的R（Z_H,Z_DR）、基于K_dp的R（K_dp）和基于K_dp与Z_DR的R（K_dp,Z_DR）这4种。文中利用深圳市S波段和X波段双偏振多普勒雷达探测资料,结合高精度地形数据和雨滴谱仪观测数据,设计了基于双偏振量的定量降水估计方法:首先利用地形数据和雷达地理信息,分析了雷达的遮挡状况,形成了这两部雷达的复合平面扫描仰角信息;随后利用雨滴谱仪观测资料,使用T矩阵方法统计得到了深圳地区的上述4种降水反演方法的参数;最后设计了混合降水反演方法,基于双偏振信号（即K_dp和Z_DR）的强弱,使用不同的降水反演方法进行定量降水估计。基于12个降水个例,利用各反演方法产生的定量降水估计结果与雨量计观测资料比较。结果表明,混合降水反演方法在降水反演的准确度和稳定性上均优于任何一种单一定量降水估计反演方法。基于文中介绍的定量降水估计方法,使用深圳S波段和X波段雷达产生了定量降水估计产品,并与深圳目前业务定量降水估计产品进行对比评估。结果表明,使用本方法产生的定量降水估计产品在准确度和稳定性上要优于目前的业务产品。此外,X波段雷达的定量降水估计产品性能要略高于S波段雷达的定量降水估计产品,这说明高时、空分辨率的X波段雷达可以提高定量降水估计精度。但由于雷达扫描平面内双偏振雷达对融化层和冰区的偏振量观测与降水的关系尚未明确,因此,本方法仅适用于雷达扫描平面内液态降水区。   相似文献   

基于偏正态概率分布的粒度分布次总体分离及其沉积环境指示意义     

袁瑞  张昌民  赵芸  张莉  陈哲  张宝进  黄若鑫 《地质论评》2022,68(3):1033-1047

沉积物颗粒是某种沉积环境和水动力条件下多个沉积过程的最终产物。粒度分布是原始沉积信息的载体,是来自不同沉积过程的多个次总体的叠加,频率曲线可能表现为双峰或者多峰特征。传统的沉积学粒度分析方法并未深入研究次总体;常见的概率分布模型在分离次总体后无法全面计算统计参数。本文以214份鄱阳湖现代沉积物的粒度分布数据为例,利用偏正态概率分布模型共分离提取977个次总体,计算各个次总体的统计参数,并对比分析了不同沉积环境中次总体参数的异同。结果表明：① 次总体均值、方差、偏度、峰度、所占百分比和最大频率等参数规律明显;② 从曲流河河道到河流末端、在河流末端顺流方向上和河道左右两侧远离河道方向上,粒度分布中主要次总体粒度均值逐渐减小,河道间洼地和湖区沉积物粒度分布的各个次总体占比接近;③ 江心洲的河道砂和河漫滩细粒粒度分布分别由3种和5种不同类型次总体组成。该方法可为沉积环境的定量判断和沉积过程的定量研究提供参考。  相似文献   

利用区域宽频地震数据反演2021年5月云南漾濞M_S6.4地震震源破裂过程     

朱音杰  罗艳  赵里  田建慧 《地球物理学报》2022,(3)

本文基于有限断层模型反演方法,利用区域宽频带数据反演了2021年5月云南漾濞M_S6.4地震的震源破裂过程,结果显示:此次地震的发震断层走向为SE向,主要以右旋走滑为主.破裂主要发生在震源东南侧,最大错动量约为0.55 m,位于深度约9 km处,发生明显破裂的深度约达13 km.此次地震释放的标量地震矩为1.48×10¹⁸N·m,相当于矩震级M_W6.05.地震能量主要在前11 s释放.在深度为6~8 km处破裂速度有明显的变快,可能加剧了地表的震动.  相似文献   

考虑不同尺度孔隙压缩敏感性的砂岩渗透特性研究     

田佳丽  王惠民  刘星星  向雷  盛金昌  罗玉龙  詹美礼 《岩土力学》2022,(2):405-415

以往的研究多是从宏观层面建立孔隙压缩敏感性与渗透率之间的关系,缺乏砂岩不同尺度孔隙结构改变对渗透率演化规律的认识。从细观孔隙层面来看,不同尺度孔隙在应力作用下闭合程度差异明显,考虑不同尺度下孔隙压缩敏感性对准确预测渗透率演化至关重要。因此,利用多场耦合核磁共振试验平台开展了砂岩渗流-应力耦合试验,获得了不同应力作用下砂岩渗透率以及孔径分布曲线的变化规律,将孔径分成大孔(>1μm)、中孔(0.1～lμm)、小孔(<0.1μm)3类,计算了砂岩不同尺度孔隙压缩系数及其转化因子,提出了考虑不同尺度孔隙压缩敏感性的砂岩渗透率计算公式。结果发现:砂岩不同尺度孔隙的压缩性差异明显,大尺度孔隙的压缩敏感性更强;考虑不同尺度孔隙压缩敏感性的渗透率公式与试验值具有较好的一致性。  相似文献   

广西三江县土壤硒含量分布特征及其影响因素研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

罗海怡  罗先熔  刘攀峰  马明亮  卓银义 《现代地质》2022,36(2):645-654

以广西三江县土壤为研究对象,采集了表层土壤样2 751件和土壤垂向剖面样180件,测定了土壤中硒的含量。利用多元统计分析、地统计学法、GIS空间分析技术和Pearson相关性分析法研究了土壤硒的含量特征和影响因素。结果表明:研究区表层土壤硒平均含量为0.63 mg/kg,变化范围为0.10~14.41 mg/kg。研究区土壤硒资源丰富,足硒和富硒土壤面积为95.87%。土壤硒含量的分布主要受到地质背景的控制,不同成土母岩形成的表层土壤硒含量存在较大差异,寒武系以黑色岩系为母质的土壤硒含量最高,平均含量达2.58 mg/kg,变化范围为0.31~14.41 mg/kg。不同土壤类型中,黄壤硒含量最高,平均含量达0.75 mg/kg,变化范围为0.24~2.07 mg/kg,水稻土硒含量最低,平均含量为0.51 mg/kg;不同土地利用类型土壤硒含量差异较大,除水田为基本自然状态以外,其余地类均呈现富集。研究区表层土壤硒含量总体上受控于深层土壤硒含量,成土过程中表层土壤硒含量发生了次生富集。同时土壤pH、Corg、P、S、Al₂O₃、TFe₂O₃含量和CIA等对土壤硒含量的分布也有一定的影响。  相似文献   

3D Modeling and Determination of Factors Responsible for Zinc-Lead Mineralization in the Mehdiabad Deposit, Central Iran, based on Statistical Analysis of Geochemical Data     

Zahra BONYADI 《《地质学报》英文版》2022,96(6):2040-2055

Although the Mehdiabad zinc-lead deposit is one of the most well-known deposits in the central Iran structural zone, the genesis of the deposit remains controversial. The host rock of the ore is a dolomitic limestone of the Lower Cretaceous Taft Formation. In the two main orebodies of the deposit, which includes the Black Hill and East Ridge ore zones, the oxide and sulfide ores are observed at the surface and at depth, respectively. The elements Zn, Fe, Mn and Mg are more abundant in the East Ridge ore zone (in both sulfide and oxide ores), with Ba, Pb, Ag and Cu being more abundant in the Black Hill oxide ore. Based on the distribution of elements and their correlation with each other in these ore zones, the elements are divided into three general groups, that of terrigenous elements, chemically-deposited elements and ore-forming (hydrothermally deposited) elements, a division that is supported by the results of factor analyses. The spatial distribution of elements is jointly affected by contact with host rocks, the boundary of oxide-sulfide ores and fault zones. The main factors governing the distribution of elements are the mechanical transfer of detrital sediments, chemical sedimentation, transfer by hydrothermal fluids, oxidation and surface dissolution, all of which affected the spatial distribution of elements. The ore-forming elements are mostly affected by hydrothermal fluids and oxidation. This study not only provides additional information about the genesis of the Mehdiabad deposit, but also could assist in the exploitation of ore and further exploration purposes. The results of this study can aid in the exploration and exploitation of the Mehdiabad deposit and similar deposits in the region.  相似文献   

Distribution Patterns of Calcite Cement in the Turbidite Sandstones of the Shahejie Formation in the Dongying Depression, Eastern China     

ZHANG Yongwang  QU Zhengyang 《《地质学报》英文版》2022,96(3):1041-1056

Calcite cements are volumetrically dominant among the most diagenetic constituents in turbidite sandstones of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation in the Dongying Depression. The results show carbonate cements mainly occur in three phases: Calcite I (pre-compaction), Calcite II (post-compaction) and ankerite in the turbidite sandstone. The isotopic composition of Calcite I and Calcite II range from ?4.3‰ to 4.4‰, ?3.5‰ to 4.3‰ PDB, respectively, suggesting that the calcite cements are mainly derived from the interbedded shales. The early calcite cement precipitated from the mixing of lacustrine and meteoric waters at 38–69°C. The late-phase calcite precipitated from pore waters modified by water-rock interactions at 64–126°C. Two distribution patterns of calcite cements can be identified, depending on their position within the sandstone. The peripheral cementation of the sandstones is near the sand-shale contact. The development of cement is controlled by sandstone thickness and the properties of the interbedded shale. For scattered cementation, the distribution of the calcite cement is not controlled by the sand-shale contact. Calcite cement was preferentially distributed in coarse-grained sandstones, indicating that sandstones with high original permeability are the preferred pathway for the migration of early diagenetic fluids.  相似文献   

南黄海海域2021年绿潮的遥感监测与分析     

詹雅婷  王玉军  宋珂 《江苏地质》2022,46(3):300-304

通过卫星遥感影像对2021年南黄海海域绿潮的分布和发展进行了持续监测,发现3月底主要以马尾藻分布为主,后续马尾藻向北发展;5月中旬,南黄海中部海域监测到马尾藻分布;5月下旬,绿潮分布靠近江苏近岸,规模迅速扩大,主要以浒苔分布为主;6月19日达到峰值,随后绿潮覆盖面积下降,至8月25日完全消亡。绿潮规模在5月下旬进入暴发阶段,至6月中旬达到峰值。完整分析了南黄海海域2021年绿潮的发展与空间分布特征,可推动绿潮防控的研究与应用,为后续绿潮防控提供参考。  相似文献